Turn three reasons to stay out into one deal no one leaves.

Three people want to invest in nature, but each is waiting for the others. Meet Ren from the bank, Sara from the pension fund, and Yui from the operating company. Each has a reason to stay out. As the deal designer, hear their concerns and decide what the contract should promise and how its value should be shared. Once all three sign, test the deal through drought, conflicting data, and a market crash.

SOLONegotiate with 3 characters

CHOICES3 interviews + deal + allocation + 3 shocks

TIME12–18 min

Open the starter glossary

Outside option = value without joining. Participation constraint = deal payoff at least as high as that option. Blocking coalition = a pair that can do better on its own.

Ren the banker, Sara the pension investor, and Yui the operator negotiate nature-finance conditions — All three are rational. Change the conditions.

Your path through the game

How to play and what to look for

Choose one question for each character to unlock contract clauses. Combine one base package with two clauses, then allocate value among the three parties and a nature recovery reserve. Check whether a person or pair would leave. Once all sign, choose responses to three shocks and use one renegotiation along the way.

Ask each character one question to uncover a condition for joining
Choose a package and two clauses, then share the value
Respond to three shocks and revise the deal in one renegotiation

What makes it rewarding

Changing your questions changes the clauses available for the same three characters. Even after everyone signs, drought and conflicting data test the deal. Should you shift a little value or preserve the reserve? Each decision lets you explore another way to keep the agreement together.

Game theory you will learn

Is joining better than staying out? Could two participants do better by leaving together? Use numbers to explore outside options, participation constraints, and coalition stability. Then see how contract terms protect the agreed value when outcomes arrive late or evidence conflicts.

Questions to take away

Whose room for loss shrank between signing and the final shock? Did the chosen clauses support your responses? Try revising the allocation and the terms separately, and look for conditions that keep all three participants involved while preserving the nature recovery reserve.

Ren

Community bank

Expand transition lending without losing clients

Fear: Tightening first and losing clients to another bank
Outside option: 14

“Even the right loan cannot last if I move alone.”

Sara

Pension fund

Verifiable nature outcomes and durable returns

Fear: Cherry-picked and incomparable nature data
Outside option: 13

“I can wait for nature if improvement is verifiable.”

Yui

Operating company

Invest in nature while keeping operations running

Fear: Running out of cash before improvements arrive
Outside option: 12

“If the company stops, nature improvement stops too.”